The resurgence of American manufacturing

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For decades, American manufacturing was on the decline as globalization pushed production overseas, hollowing out the Rust Belt and pushing American workers everywhere towards white-collar jobs. Now, however, American manufacturing may be on the path to a comeback, driven by a convergence of corporate and political considerations.

The push towards onshoring the manufacturing of key goods—such as semiconductors, pharmaceuticals and medical equipment, as well as defense-related equipment and technologies—stems from lessons learned during the pandemic, as well as the desire to secure U.S. economic growth and security amid Desglobalización, BOK Financial® experts said.

They believe that trade and this revitalization of the U.S. manufacturing sector will likely drive economic growth in 2026 and are cautiously optimistic that the reshoring of manufacturing, coupled with advancements in artificial intelligence (AI), could accelerate growth—and benefit financial markets—during the year.

"When I think about what the current administration has done to attract businesses to operate here in the U.S., I see a lot of pro-business initiatives: tax incentives, tariffs and direct investment in industries tied to national security-semiconductors, metals and mining. That's a clear signal that these sectors need to thrive," said Brian Henderson, director de inversiones en BOK Financial.

Indeed, federal policy has become a key driver of the burgeoning resurgence in American manufacturing. Permanent corporate tax rates of 21% give businesses confidence to invest, while new rules allowing immediate expensing of facility construction costs-rather than decades-long depreciation-are a "game-changer for cost-benefit analysis," said Steve Wyett, director de estrategias de inversión de BOK Financial. Tariffs, meanwhile, have also pushed companies to rethink global sourcing. "The message is clear: you don't want to pay a tariff, produce it here domestically," he noted.

Additionally, Washington is backing strategic industries with direct investment and legislation like the CHIPS Act, which helped bring semiconductor manufacturing to cities like Phoenix, Ariz. "The country is behind the companies and industries that the administration views as important from a national security standpoint," Henderson said. Energy policy and deregulation complement these efforts, with relaxed permitting and streamlined rules aimed at making it easier to do business and build the infrastructure needed for long-term growth, he continued.

The decline of globalization a key catalyst for change

All of these developments are part of deglobalization-that is, the movement away from globalization, experts said. Following the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989 and the subsequent collapse of the Soviet Union, the world economy became increasing globalized, with the 2001 entrance of China into the World Trade Organization further enabling U.S. companies to offshore more jobs to Asia, said Matt Stephani, presidente de Cavanal Hill Investment Management, Inc., una subsidiaria de BOKF, NA. This globalized economy created what Stephani calls a "peace dividend," which helped keep interest rates and consumer prices low in the U.S.

However, the downsides to globalization became apparent during the Covid pandemic, which exposed the fragility of global supply chains and the risks of overreliance on foreign producers. "We realized we don't make a lot of medical equipment and pharmaceuticals in the U.S.," Stephani said. "Turns out, most of these goods were supplied by a sole supplier- in many cases: China." Geopolitical developments then compounded these concerns. The public alignment of China and Russia during the Beijing Olympics signaled a shift toward a multipolar world, raising questions about the security of supply chains that underpin both economic stability and national defense.

Encouraging onshoring and friend-shoring of these supply chains helps mitigate these risks. As Henderson said, "The U.S. may not always be the lowest-cost provider, but for industries vital to national security-like semiconductors and rare earth metals-it makes sense to develop them here. Relying on a single foreign supplier creates risks we can't afford."

Beyond these national security considerations lies a social dimension as well, according to Wyett. "Globalization hollowed out a big part of the U.S. middle class," he said. In the past, it was possible to support a family by working in a factory, but as more workers shifted towards service-based jobs, which tend to pay less than manufacturing work, it has become harder for families to get by, he explained.

In November 1943, during World War II, 44% of U.S. employees worked in manufacturing jobs, according to the data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). During that time, the average weekly earnings for an American factory worker were $44.86 a week (around $837 in today’s dollars), según un 1944 Informe from the BLS. The federal minimum wage was 30 cents an hour at the time, or $12 a week for a 40-hour work week ($224 in today’s dollars).

By comparison, in August 2025, only 13.6% of U.S. employees worked at a manufacturing jobs, which pay an average of $29 an hour, or $1,160 a week for a 40-hour work week, according to BLS statistics. In other words, although the pay for manufacturing jobs has increased over time, the percentage of Americans working in those jobs has decreased substantially.

Meanwhile, someone being paid the federal minimum wage of $7.25 an hour in 2025 earns only $290 a week. That's only slightly more than someone earning minimum wage in 1943 earned, when the earlier figure is ajustado por inflación.

With these figures in mind, the resurgence of American manufacturing becomes not just about chips and defense systems, but rather also an effort to revitalize higher paying, goods-producing jobs. However, this movement towards reshoring isn't without downsides. "As we bring more manufacturing back to the U.S., corporate margins may decline a little bit because of the higher costs, but at the same time their supply chains will be more resilient and the companies will have more control over production and distribution," Wyett said. Those higher costs, in turn, may also be passed on to U.S. consumers who are already struggling with the compounding effects of inflation.

What’s coming back—and what’s not

It's very unlikely that this resurgence in American manufacturing will encompass all goods, experts agreed. For instance, high-volume, low-margin goods like T-shirts and lightbulbs probably will continue to be manufactured overseas because it wouldn't make sense economically for companies to produce them in the U.S. at a higher cost, Wyett said.

Here’s what’s mostly likely to be produced in the U.S., according to experts:

• Semiconductors: "Semiconductors are the base for everything," Stephani emphasized. "From smartphones to fighter jets, chips constitute the backbone of modern technology and national security."
• Pharmaceuticals: “Having a huge percentage of our pharmaceuticals produced overseas, primarily in China, is probably not good,” Wyett warned, citing the supply-chain vulnerabilities revealed during the pandemic.
• Aerospace components, advanced automotive systems and defense-related technologies: These are industries where protecting intellectual property and supply chain security is paramount, Henderson said.

Mirando hacia el futuro

Reshoring could reshape the trajectory of U.S. economic growth. As Stephani observed, "A resurgence in manufacturing would increase potential gross domestic product (GDP) growth and may help the U.S. avoid debt challenges." The construction of new facilities likely would generate immediate employment for skilled trades and create jobs in advanced manufacturing, amplifying the multiplier effect across local economies.

However, the downside to this job growth is that it could exacerbate the potential labor shortage from retiring Baby Boomers and tighter immigration policies, experts noted. "Labor supply is a real constraint," Henderson said. "We're already seeing delays in data center construction because of worker shortages and power availability."

Additionally, any changes will not occur overnight. "These policies are relatively new; the benefits will be rolled out over many years," Henderson continued. Still, the momentum is unmistakable. "Access to reliable and abundant energy is key for the continued growth of our economy-and the current administration knows that," he added.